Tree Nuts: Record Trade Volumes as Macadamias Lead Growth
The global tree nut industry has entered 2026 with something rare: record trade volumes and production that has finally stabilized after a decade of expansion. For buyers and sellers, the opportunities are increasingly s
The global tree nut industry has entered 2026 with something rare: record trade volumes and production that has finally stabilized after a decade of expansion. For buyers and sellers, the opportunities are increasingly specific — it matters which nut, and which market.
Production stabilizes at 6.14 million tons
Global tree nut production reached approximately 6.14 million metric tons in 2025/26, capping a 3% compound annual growth rate over the past decade. Almonds, cashews, walnuts, pistachios and hazelnuts account for about 95% of total output:
- Almonds remain the largest category at an estimated 1.71 million MT for 2026/27
- Macadamias are the fastest-growing category at ~8% CAGR
- Pecans are climbing steadily, expected to reach 170,000 MT in 2026/27
Trade hits a record
Global in-shell tree nut exports reached a record 6.1 million metric tons in 2025 — a 10% CAGR since 2020 — led by cashews (+13%) and macadamias (+12%). The flow patterns matter for positioning:
- Asia takes 91% of in-shell imports, with cashews 74% of that volume
- Europe leads shelled imports (53%), followed by Asia (31%), with almonds and cashews the main categories
- China is now the world's largest producer of walnuts, macadamias and pine nuts, and in 2025 overtook the US as the second-largest nut consumer after India
Pistachios: the tightest major nut
Global pistachio production for 2025/26 is forecast down 8% to 1.1 million tons as declines in Turkey, Iran and Syria more than offset a record US crop. Yet exports are forecast up 6% to a record 683,000 tons, powered by a 43% jump in US output to 713,000 tons. Drought and irrigation interruptions in Iran — down 11% to 200,000 tons — mean US sellers are capturing Asian and European demand.
Cashews: processing shifts west
The 2026 world cashew crop is estimated at 5.2–5.6 million MT, with Cambodia and Ivory Coast the largest suppliers. Vietnam still processes 70–80% of the world crop, but West African nations now handle 15–20% — a structural shift worth watching for buyers who want shorter supply chains. Ivory Coast's adjustments to export fee rebates could move prices; the situation is still developing.
The takeaway
Strong supply no longer guarantees strong returns — marketing, inventory timing and export-market alignment decide profitability in 2026. Macadamias and cashews offer growth; pistachios offer tightness; almonds reward scale and diversification. List with clear grades and kernel counts, and buyers across Asia and Europe can find you.
Sources: International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (September 2026), USDA Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade (February 2026), National Nut Grower 2026 Industry Report.